- Downturn Has Increased Emerging Market Opportunities for Global Retailers, Says A.T. Kearney Study
The United Arab Emirates made the biggest move in the 2009 GRDI, rising 16 places to fourth position as its oil-driven economy proved more resistant to widespread downturn than other countries, according to global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney’s eighth annual Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), a study of retail investment attractiveness among 30 emerging markets.
While the UAE’s population of five million is relatively small compared to the three countries above it in the GRDI, it has the highest per capita consumer spending of any country in the Index. In fact, Dubai is on track to have the world’s largest amount of shopping space per capita by 2010. Retailers in Dubai are focusing on local customers as tourism drops and that is creating entry opportunities for hypermarkets and discounters. The retail industry will become more costumer focused, improving products, prices and service.
Yet while Dubai has a well established retail scene, Abu Dhabi is the rising star of the Emirates according to the study. It has remained well insulated from the global economic crisis because of its oil reserves and sovereign wealth fund. Several new museums and a Formula One race are planned and will help it attract tourists. Immigration is also expected to pick up as Abu Dubai becomes a nearby alternative to Dubai. New city developments will increase real estate supply and strong awareness of global brands among the population will provide opportunities for local and foreign retailers.
“The UAE has moved 16 places in this year’s study which confirms the resilience of the market; and with solid differentiation strategies, the retail industry will continue to grow” said Robert Ziegler, vice president and director, A.T. Kearney, UAE.
With declining sales in home markets and consumer spending still tight, global expansion of international retailers increases in importance as a strategy for growth. The global recession has made prime real estate locations increasingly available and affordable in many developing markets, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. It also has made acquisition valuations of many local-market retailers very attractive. Unlike most developed markets, GDP in emerging markets is expected to continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate, and populations in many countries are younger, increasingly urban and showing a growing interest in modern retail formats.
Larger, resilient developing countries, such as India, Russia, China alongside UAE and Saudi Arabia sit atop the 2009 GRDI, as they are most likely to lead the economic recovery. For the fourth time in five years, India is the most attractive country for retail investment according to the Index. (see full ranking of 30 countries below).
Published since 2001, the GRDI helps retailers prioritize their global development strategies by ranking the retail expansion attractiveness of emerging countries based on a set of 25 variables including economic and political risk, retail market attractiveness, retail saturation levels, and the difference between gross domestic product growth and retail growth. A detailed analysis and country-specific results for the 2009 GRDI is available at
www.atkearney.com.
“With economic conditions in developed markets improving so slowly, emerging markets are becoming much more important sources of growth for global retailers,” said Ziegler. “Leading global retailers must develop a portfolio strategy that balances big and developed markets with small and developing markets to manage risks across the globe.”
