- Middle East, China, Pakistan and India constitute key emerging markets
Global consumption of milk and other liquid dairy products* is expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% over the next three years, according to research released by Tetra Pak, the world leader in food processing and packaging solutions. The forecast is contained in the Tetra Pak Dairy Index, a new biannual report on consumption trends in the dairy industry that is designed to help global dairy producers identify opportunities for growth.
According to the Tetra Pak Dairy Index, in 2008, global consumption of liquid dairy products, excluding soy and dairy alternatives, reached a record high of 258 billion litres. As one of the key global growth regions, Middle East witnessed 5% growth in volume of packed liquid dairy products in 2008. This translates to consumption of 3.5 billion litres of packed liquid dairy products in GCC, Egypt, Levant (Lebanon, Syria and Jordan) and Yemen.
Emerging markets account for nearly 96% of global consumption growth
Leading much of the growth in the global dairy industry — 95.8% over the past four years —are emerging markets, such as the Middle East, Pakistan, China and India. These markets are experiencing fast growth in the consumption of milk and other liquid dairy products based on growing populations, rising household incomes, new dietary trends and increased awareness and availability of dairy products. Within the greater Middle East classification, the GCC and Yemen consumption of packed white milk was 25 litres per capita, while the Levant region was at 10 litres per capita in 2008.
Dennis Jönsson, President and CEO of the Tetra Pak Group, said: “Milk is a basic food staple, which is considered part of a healthy and nutritious diet for all ages all around the world. We expect two trends to continue to drive global milk consumption over the next three years: continued growth in emerging markets and a shift toward consuming more packaged milk. Packaged milk continues to grow, based primarily on health and safety concerns and also a desire for more convenience to suit busier, more mobile lifestyles.”
“It is good to see strong growth for liquid dairy products in an emerging and fast growing market like Middle East. This just goes to show that more people are getting conscious of their health and the health of their families and are including staple dairy products in their everyday diet. We at Tetra Pak look forward to driving this growth by working with our customers in the dairy industry, to highlight the importance of milk,” said Amar Zahid, Managing Director of Tetra Pak Arabia.
Packaged milk expected to reach 72% of global consumption by 2012
Another factor driving growth, particularly in emerging markets, is a fundamental shift in the way liquid dairy products are packaged and consumed. From 2005 to 2008 the global market share of unpackaged milk declined by 1.8%.
During the same time period, the global market share of Ultra High Temperature (UHT) milk (milk which can be shipped and stored before opening without requiring either refrigeration or preservatives) increased by 3.2% Tetra Pak estimates that global consumption of UHT milk will grow at a CAGR of 5.2% between now and 2012, reaching more than 70 billion litres by 2012. In fact, consumption of packaged milk and other liquid dairy products is growing faster than the entire liquid dairy category, and is expected to reach more than 72% of total global consumption by 2012.
